Tottenham have been overperforming their xG but will it last long under Thomas Frank?
Tottenham Hotspur sit 14th in the Premier League table, and the sack pressure is building on Thomas Frank, as he continues to underwhelm in his first season in N17.
The Lilywhites’ realistic chance of winning silverware this season came to an end on Saturday when they were dumped out of the FA Cup third round by Aston Villa. Their awful league form has compounded the frustrations of the fans, whose calls for the dismissal of Thomas Frank have been growing with every passing game.
The FA Cup defeat to Aston Villa means Tottenham have won just one of their last seven matches in all competitions. Thomas Frank is rapidly running out of ways and time to salvage anything from his debut season at the club. Under the Dane, there seems to be no clear strategy or game plan as to how to go about things. The style of play is boring, turgid with sideways and back-ways passing most of the time.
Tottenham among Europe’s top five leagues to produce less xG per 90 minutes
Tottenham have struggled with creativity and chance creation this season. The injury absences of James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski have affected the team’s creativity massively. Marquee summer signing Xavi Simons has not lived up to his hype in north London, meaning the creative responsibility has been burdened by fellow summer acquisition Mohammed Kudus.
Frank’s pragmatic style of play, coupled with the team’s lack of quality and no risk-taking approach, has resulted in the entire Spurs team attempting only 11 through balls in 21 Premier League games. To make the reading further grim, nine Premier League players have attempted more through balls than Frank’s side.
Tottenham have struggled to dominate games under Frank. They have needed to be very efficient to make up for their lack of dominance in games. The players are doing little to help ease the pressure on the 52-year-old, and the xG per 90 minutes stat makes a further damning reading.
The xG metric seeks to measure the quality of any given shot and assign a probability that it will end up in the back of the net. The higher the xG of a shot, basically, the better odds it has of being a goal. Now, as per a recent FBref revelation on X, only nine teams in Europe’s top 5 leagues produce less xG per 90 minutes than Tottenham. The teams with worse xG per 90 than Frank’s side are Cagliari, Parma, Wolves, Real Oviedo, Sunderland, Burnley, St. Pauli, Lecce and Getafe.
Tottenham overperforming their xG
Tottenham are creating an xG of 0.96 per game and have an xAG (Expected Assists Goals) of 0.75. When combined, it comes to 1.71, which is similar to Serie A side Cagliari’s stats.
To make things simple, Spurs have played 21 games in the Premier League. They have scored 30 goals and conceded 27. Frank’s side have an xG of 24.5 in 21 games, which clearly shows they are overperforming xG. (Stats courtesy: Football XG). The London-based outfit have been clinical in front of goal by scoring 5+ goals than expected given the chances they have had.
While this is obviously good to see that Tottenham have been clinical in front of goal despite Dominic Solanke being absent for several months, Frank will want to quickly improve his club’s dominance in games, as the stats-savvy Dane will likely know that significantly overperforming your xG does not last forever. He needs to quickly turn things around at the club or pay a premium.
