Tottenham in a relegation conversation? The numbers say yes, reality says something else

By
Jainil Shah
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0
15

Tottenham are coming off back-to-back wins in the PL now.

Tottenham have struggled to put up half-decent performances in the ongoing 2025/26 Premier League campaign. And you can get a sense of it when you look at where Tottenham are situated in that Premier League table.

Right at the foot of it, Spurs are still fighting in that relegation scrap. But there have been some impressive performances off late. You start with that Brighton game; despite it ending up in a draw, it suddenly drew a sense of belief among the fans and the players.

And to add to it came that win away at Wolves. This was the game that showed that the tactics under Roberto De Zerbi are making sense. It was a grinding win, but a very much needed win nonetheless.

But then happened Aston Villa. The performance against Villans showed how Tottenham belonged in the English top tier. It was an absolute all-round performance, one that left Unai Emery scratching his head.

Opta relegation probability gives encouraging numbers

Those three points at Villa Park were big. They showed how this Tottenham roster is still among the best in the English top tier in their day. And more importantly, it also meant that the Lilywhites end the Premiership matchday outside that drop zone.

And given that West Ham lost against Brentford last weekend, it also means Tottenham finally hold all cards in their hands and are at an advantage for the first time in this relegation scrap.

And that also shows in the numbers, as according to Opta probability model (h/t Squawka), the Lilywhites currently hold a 20.73% chance of relegation this season. And that is a massive improvement to the ones that have been going around in the last weeks.

That relegation numbers lie, doesn’t it?

While on paper that places Tottenham only second to drop to West Ham, while it looks alarming, it misses a lot of the recent games because when you actually watch this Tottenham side, the idea of relegation doesn’t really come around, especially from those recent performances.

This is a team that are coming off one of their most controlled away performances of the season at Villa Park. To add to it, they are a side that has a very strong away record in the league, with only Arsenal and Manchester City picking up more points on the road.

That probability of 20.73% only shows a reflection of where Tottenham were, but it does not fully paint a picture of where this side is heading.