Everyone is writing off Tottenham next season, here are the numbers that suggest they shouldn’t be… – View

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Tottenham squad faces early broadcast tweaks as the Premier League confirms vital August and September fixture changes.
Tottenham squad faces early broadcast tweaks as the Premier League confirms vital August and September fixture changes. [Image via Tottenham Hotspur]

Tottenham have been the busiest PL club in the transfer window.

Tottenham Hotspur endured a difficult campaign, which saw the North Londoners finish seventeenth twice in the English top tier. But the chiefs at Hotspur Way have not been waiting to lick their wounds this summer, and they have come out quite aggressively in their transfer business, which brings a particular kind of confidence among the Lilywhites’ faithful, one that only becomes visible after all the noise of a chaotic summer dims down and when you start looking at squads of clubs going into the first day of the campaign rather than what the league table said on the last day of the previous one.

That is exactly what has been happening at N17 with Roberto De Zerbi driving the charge. And this time around, the blocks of Tottenham’s base are not built on hope or sentiments but rather on a mix of the advantage they will have after not finishing in the top half of the season, complemented by the team they have crafted.

Going by the recent history, we saw this happening to Arsenal, to Manchester United, and to Chelsea, and it shows how this kind of advantage backed by quality transfers generally leads to an upward trajectory, which usually catches rivals off guard.

The new gaffer bounce at Hotspur Way

Tottenham brought Roberto De Zerbi to N17 in what was a surprise move in the midst of a relegation battle last season (precisely around the end of March). And the former Brighton head coach did manage to keep the Lilywhites in the Premier League in the seven games that he had to work with.

And he now has a first full pre-season at Tottenham with a roster that will be reshaped exactly to his strengths.

Generally we have seen that new managers bounce around the Premier League. But then when that bounce is met by a genuine backing, it carries a bigger upside. And that is exactly what Tottenham would be hoping for with RDZ at the helm.

The first year when De Zerbi took over the reins at the Amex, he ended with finishing sixth with Europa League qualification at Amex Stadium. And that he did so despite having a team (with all due respect) that was not better on paper than the team that Tottenham will have next season after this crazy summer that Vinai & Co. have been having with Tottenham having a healthy roster with Tonali, Fernandes, Van Hecke, and a fit Micky van de Ven.

No European football is an advantage (but nobody wants to talk about it)

Tottenham are only going to take the field once a week for most part of the new 2026/27 season barring the FA Cup and EFL Cup fixtures. While Tottenham play once every seven or so days, most of their immediate rivals in Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Aston Villa will all have to balance their squad rotations with either Champions League or Europa League commitments.

The aforementioned clubs will get that fatigue build-up along the season and also increase the risk of injuries (especially if they are forced to play on turf pitches in the midweek). And then there is also a psychological toll of pushing on multiple fronts simultaneously.

And we can see how no European football can benefit a domestic campaign. The best example would be that title-winning season from Leicester City in 2015/16 with no European football to contend with. Even recently relegated West Ham was sixth in the 2020/21 season when they only had to focus domestically.

Time and again we have seen how clubs without midweek commitments (especially clubs with talented rosters) consistently play better than expectations, especially if they find a settled eleven.

Tottenham are due to rub shoulders with the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea at various points next season when those clubs are managing the aftermath of a Tuesday or Wednesday night Champions League fixture.

While it does not guarantee anything, it at least means that Tottenham can go into these games with fresh legs and fewer forced rotations.

Then comes the injury factor that everyone seems to be forgetting

One of the most overlooked parts of the entire situation that Tottenham found themselves in for the last couple of campaigns is that the Lilywhites had their best players throwing their hands up with injuries that left them light time and again.

To put last season into context, James Maddison was sidelined with a serious knee injury for most of the season. His fiery counterpart in Dejan Kulusevski missed the entire season with a knee problem of his own. Wilson Odobert went down with an ACL injury in the middle of the season, while Mohammed Kudus suffered a quad injury in January and never returned.

If we just think about how one key player being absent ripples through the whole side, we can look at Arsenal and when they had to manage without Jurrien Timber.

If we think about the situation at Tottenham, we saw how they had to manage without creative quality for most of the season.

But with Maddison getting back to full fitness while being supported by the ball progression that Tonali brings to the table and the engine of Fernandes, it means Tottenham will suddenly have a better structure going into the first game than the one the Lilywhites had all of last season.

Kulusevski’s possible return adds another dimension of attacking threat, which Tottenham did not have all season.

And all of this can reciprocate in strong performances on the pitch.

Then comes the midfield transformation that changes everything for Tottenham

Sandro Tonali
Tottenham summer signing Sandro Tonali

While there is not a lot of understanding around whether Tottenham are going to bring back Joao Palhinha as that ball-winning defensive anchor after his loan spell concluded at the end of last season.

But then Tottenham has confirmed the arrival of Mateus Fernandes from West Ham in an £85 million move, and he comes through the doors at Hotspur Way as one of the best young midfielders in the Premier League. To put it into context, despite playing in a CM role, he created more chances at West Ham last season than any current Tottenham player apart from Pedro Porro.

And alongside Fernandes, Tonali comes in at N17 as well. He complements Fernandes in ball progression ability from the second phase with a sense of tempo control and tactical intelligence that transforms how a team functions across every phase of play (something we have seen time and again at Newcastle).

This is starting to be a midfield that can be among the best in the league for years to come.

A top four is not a fantasy at Hotspur Way

Going into this season, you expect Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, and either Chelsea or Manchester United to finish in the top four next season.

The city is rebuilding after losing Pep, while Liverpool will be adjusting to life under Iraola after a disappointing campaign under Slot. Chelsea’s squad remains still bloated despite Xabi Alonso taking over the reins at the Bridge.

And Villa may lose Morgan Rogers to Arsenal, which would remove the most important creative player at Villa Park from Emery’s side.

Tottenham don’t have to be better than all the clubs in the list but just one of them, especially if any of them are to suffer a bit of an inconsistent season. And that is exactly where De Zerbi, with a fully available roster and playing one game a week, can juggle himself into a possible Champions League place finish.