Returning to the UEFA Champions League next season is the big goal for Tottenham in a campaign where they have failed to close the gap on the season’s EPL title contenders. It’s been a season made harder by having to watch rivals Arsenal flourish in the Premier League title race.

All that Tottenham can control is their own destiny, of course. But inconsistencies in their performances mean that they are going to have to sweat it out, more likely than not, until the end of the season. 

The recent surge of Liverpool has put Tottenham’s odds at a Top Four Finish at risk according to the best UK bookmakers for football. With three of the four Champions League slots already looking booked for next season, Tottenham are still in a position where they could rue not being as comfortably well-off two-thirds of the season in, as the likes of Man Utd and Arsenal are.

The Home Stats

In February 2023, Tottenham won all three of their home league matches played without conceding a goal. It was a fantastic haul of nine points, which included successes against rivals Chelsea and a potential marquee victory over Manchester City.

But in between all of that, the away form of Spurs continued to frustrate with a heavy loss at Leicester and then a big slip-up at Wolves in their first game of March. Tottenham’s February 2-0 win over Chelsea was their 13th home game of the season.

With just over two-thirds of their home fixtures under their belt, Spurs had returned a W9 D0 L4 record at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for the league season. Three of the four home defeats happened against key rivals challenging for a Champions League spot, Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool.

More would have been expected from Tottenham’s numbers at home. They had opened the scoring in just six of their first thirteen home league fixtures and had led at the half-time break on just three occasions.

Tottenham’s average goals per game stood at only 1.13 goals in a run of eight matches since a mid-January 2-0 home loss against Arsenal. That was a number 36% below their season average output.

What can be pulled from that, is that Spurs are potentially in danger of grinding to a halt. In between their bright start to home form for the season and their bust of positivity in February, there was a dreadful run of home league form by Tottenham. 

Consistency remains a major issue.

Where Conte Is Missing the Boat

Tottenham’s record against the other top-six contenders this season stood at a tremendously poor W1 L6 record at the beginning of March. They had conceded at least two goals in each of those massively important matches as well.

There has been a clear problem there, the points drain has been massive. It hasn’t just been defeats, it’s been heavy losses, like their 3-1 slump at Arsenal and their 4-2 crushing loss at Man City. Four of the six losses against the other Top 6 happened by a two-goal margin. 

So there is clearly a performance divide there. The focus could swing towards their away day mishaps at the likes of Wolves and Leicester certainly, but Antonio Conte’s inability to consistently beat the best is what may ultimately cost Tottenham the Champions League prize.

Odds on Reaching the Top Four

But Tottenham are still in the race and therefore have a chance. The best bookmakers have a quote of around 7/4 on Spurs making it into the top four. But the issue ahead of Tottenham is what is to come in April.

The three outstanding games that they have against their rivals in the race for a Top Four Finish, all come within the space of a week. The pressure in that period is going to be incredibly tough for the Lilywhites and only one of those three matches are at home.

But even that match, against Manchester United, may not provide much hope. Spurs are W1 L3 in home matches against top-six opposition this season. Away from home, it’s P3 L3 from Spurs this season against the other Top 6 clubs.

It’s the short space of time that those intense matches are played in which adds a new level of difficulty. It’s a trip to Newcastle on April 23rd, with their home game against Man Utd on the 27th. Three days later they have what could be a defining match at Anfield  against Liverpool. 

A Silver Lining

Tottenham’s remaining home fixtures for the season aren’t actually that bad. Their clash with Manchester United in late April is the big one in the sequence. Outside of that, matches against top-ten contenders Brighton and Brentford are on paper, the most difficult ones to come.

The other remaining games against teams in the bottom half of the table certainly give Spurs enough points to target. But with Newcastle and Liverpool harassing them for that final Champions League spot, they are going to have to find some big momentum from somewhere.